MTY Food Group Stock Jumps 10% as Takeover Deal Expected This Weekend

January 23, 2026 | Toronto Stock Exchange News

MTY Food Group stock (TSX: MTY) climbed 10% on Thursday to C$44.00 per share as sources indicate the Canadian restaurant franchisor’s sale could be finalized this weekend, with multiple bidders competing for the company behind Thai Express, Cold Stone Creamery, and Papa Murphy’s.

The MTY stock surge reflects growing investor confidence that acquisition negotiations between the Montreal-based company and competing buyers—including Serruya Private Equity and Recipe Unlimited—are reaching their final stages after weeks of intensive due diligence and price negotiations.

Adding to shareholder value, MTY Food Group confirmed it will trade ex-dividend on February 3, 2026, with shareholders of record on that date receiving a USD $0.26884 dividend per share (approximately C$0.37) on February 13, 2026. This represents the company’s recently announced 12% dividend increase and marks the 13th dividend raise since 2010.

MTY Acquisition Timeline: Weekend Negotiations Could Seal Deal

Investment banking sources familiar with the MTY Food Group sale process told reporters that bidders are racing to submit final offers before a weekend deadline, with an announcement potentially coming as early as Monday, January 27, 2026.

The accelerated timeline for the MTY takeover has pushed trading volumes significantly higher, with more than 450,000 MTY shares changing hands Thursday—nearly triple the normal daily average of 180,000 shares. This spike in MTY trading volume suggests institutional investors are positioning ahead of a potential deal announcement.

Despite Thursday’s rally, MTY Food Group shares continue trading 15-20% below the reported C$52-53 per share bid prices, indicating market participants are pricing in deal execution risk until a formal acquisition agreement is signed.

Who’s Buying MTY Food Group? Bidders Still Silent on Takeover Terms

Three companies are reportedly competing to acquire MTY Food Group:

1. Serruya Private Equity – The Toronto-based private equity firm has reportedly offered approximately C$52 per share in cash for MTY Food Group. Serruya previously owned Kahala Brands (Cold Stone Creamery, Blimpie) before selling it to MTY in 2016 for $300 million, giving the firm intimate knowledge of MTY’s U.S. operations.

2. Recipe Unlimited Corporation (TSX: RECP) – Canada’s other major restaurant franchisor, owner of Swiss Chalet, Harvey’s, and The Keg, has submitted a bid exceeding C$53 per share according to sources. A Recipe-MTY merger would create Canada’s dominant restaurant franchise platform with over 7,800 combined locations.

3. Undisclosed Strategic Buyer – At least one additional bidder remains active in the MTY acquisition process, though their identity has not been revealed. Sources suggest this third party could push bids into the high C$50s per share.

As of Thursday evening, MTY Food Group, Serruya Private Equity, and Recipe Unlimited all declined to comment on acquisition negotiations or the reported weekend deadline. Representatives from each company either did not respond to media inquiries or stated they do not comment on market speculation.

MTY Food Group Market Cap: Deal Value Could Reach C$2.2 Billion

At Thursday’s closing price of C$44.00, MTY Food Group’s market capitalization stands at approximately C$1.76 billion. However, if acquisition bids reach C$52-53 per share as reported, the total deal value would climb to C$2.1-2.2 billion, making it one of Canada’s largest restaurant industry transactions in recent years.

For comparison, MTY paid approximately $300 million USD for Kahala Brands in 2016, effectively doubling the company’s size at the time. A C$2.2 billion acquisition of MTY would represent more than 7x that transaction value.

Why MTY Food Group Stock Is Attractive to Buyers

MTY Food Group operates one of North America’s largest restaurant franchise portfolios, with several characteristics driving premium acquisition valuations:

Asset-Light Business Model

With 97% of MTY’s 6,500+ locations operating under franchise agreements, the company generates predictable royalty revenue without the capital requirements of company-owned restaurants. This franchise-heavy model produces strong cash flow margins that appeal to both private equity buyers and strategic acquirers.

Diversified Brand Portfolio

MTY Food Group owns 70+ restaurant brands across multiple categories:

• Asian: Thai Express, Manchu Wok, Tiki Ming
• Mexican: Mucho Burrito, Taco Time
• Pizza: Papa Murphy’s, Pizza Delight
• Ice Cream: Cold Stone Creamery (via Kahala Brands), Yogen Früz
• Sandwiches: Blimpie, Subway locations (in Canada)
• Coffee & Quick Service: Country Style, Timothy’s

This brand diversification reduces risk compared to single-concept restaurant operators and provides multiple revenue streams across different consumer segments.

International Presence

MTY Food Group locations span 25 countries, with significant operations in Canada, the United States, and international markets including the Middle East. This geographic diversification provides growth opportunities and reduces dependence on any single market.

Strong Cash Flow Generation

MTY’s recent 12% dividend increase—its 13th raise since 2010—demonstrates consistent cash generation. The new quarterly dividend of C$0.37 per share (USD $0.26884) provides a 3.4% annual yield at current prices, validating the company’s ability to return capital to shareholders while funding growth.

Important Dividend Dates for MTY Shareholders:

• Ex-Dividend Date: February 3, 2026 – Stock begins trading without dividend entitlement
• Record Date: February 3, 2026 – Shareholders must be registered by this date to receive dividend
• Payment Date: February 13, 2026 – Dividend payment distributed to eligible shareholders
• Dividend Amount: USD $0.26884 per share (approximately C$0.37 CAD)

Investors who purchase MTY Food Group stock on or after February 3, 2026 will not receive the upcoming dividend payment. This ex-dividend date is particularly significant given the ongoing acquisition discussions, as shareholders of record on February 3 will receive the dividend regardless of whether an acquisition closes before the February 13 payment date.

The dividend payment represents a cash distribution to shareholders, which is taxable income in most jurisdictions. Shareholders should consult with tax professionals regarding the specific tax treatment of MTY dividends based on their individual circumstances, as dividend taxation varies by country and investor type.

MTY Food Group Acquisition: Regulatory Approval Process

A C$2+ billion acquisition of MTY Food Group would require multiple regulatory approvals before closing:

Competition Bureau Canada Review

Any MTY acquisition would undergo review by the Competition Bureau to ensure the transaction doesn’t substantially lessen competition in Canadian restaurant markets. Recipe Unlimited’s bid could face closer scrutiny given the overlap between the two companies’ Canadian operations.

Investment Canada Act

If a foreign buyer like Serruya Private Equity acquires MTY Food Group, the transaction may require approval under the Investment Canada Act, which reviews foreign investments in Canadian businesses above certain thresholds. This could extend the closing timeline by several months.

TSX Approval

As a publicly traded company on the Toronto Stock Exchange, MTY Food Group would need TSX approval for any change-of-control transaction that results in delisting.

What MTY Shareholders Should Know About the Takeover

Investors holding MTY Food Group stock face several scenarios depending on how acquisition talks progress:

Best Case Scenario: A deal is announced Monday at C$53+ per share, delivering 20%+ upside from Thursday’s close. Shareholders would receive a premium price and exit their positions at a significant profit.

Likely Scenario: A deal closes at C$52 per share within 3-4 months after regulatory approvals, providing 18% upside plus dividend payments during the interim period.

Risk Scenario: Acquisition talks collapse, MTY stock retreats to C$38-40 per share (pre-speculation levels), though the company continues operating independently with its enhanced dividend.

Dividend Timing Considerations for MTY Shareholders

The February 3, 2026 ex-dividend date creates an important decision point for MTY shareholders:

If you buy MTY stock before February 3: You will receive the USD $0.26884 dividend on February 13, plus any acquisition premium if a deal is announced. This represents the best total return scenario.

If you buy MTY stock on or after February 3: You will not receive the upcoming dividend but may still benefit from acquisition premium. The stock typically drops by approximately the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date.

If an acquisition closes before February 13: Shareholders of record on February 3 will still receive the dividend payment even if they sell shares to an acquirer before February 13. The dividend is legally owed to whoever owned shares on the record date.

Some institutional investors reportedly sold MTY shares into Thursday’s rally, taking profits while maintaining partial positions. This strategy allows them to lock in gains while preserving exposure to potential higher bids. However, investors who sell before February 3 will forfeit the upcoming dividend payment.

MTY Food Group Historical Acquisitions: Track Record of M&A Success

MTY Food Group has completed more than 20 acquisitions since its founding in 1979, building its current 70+ brand portfolio through strategic deals:

• 2022: BBQ Holdings ($200M USD) – Added Famous Dave’s barbecue chain
• 2022: Wetzel’s Pretzels ($207M USD) – Added 350+ pretzel locations
• 2017: Imvescor Restaurant Group (C$248M) – Added Baton Rouge, Mike’s restaurants
• 2016: Kahala Brands ($300M USD) – Major expansion adding Cold Stone Creamery, Blimpie, Pinkberry
• 2013: Extreme Brandz ($45M USD) – Added Extreme Pita, Mucho Burrito
• 2009: Country Style ($14.6M CAD) – Added 488 coffee shop locations

This M&A experience demonstrates management’s ability to integrate acquisitions successfully, a factor that increases MTY’s value to potential buyers who can leverage this operational expertise.

Restaurant Industry Consolidation Trends in Canada

The potential MTY Food Group sale reflects broader consolidation trends in the Canadian restaurant sector:

• Rising labor costs and food inflation pressuring smaller operators
• Private equity interest in franchise-based models with recurring revenue
• Strategic buyers seeking scale advantages through portfolio combinations
• Shift toward asset-light models that minimize capital requirements

Other recent Canadian restaurant M&A activity includes Recipe Unlimited’s acquisition of The Keg in 2018 for C$200 million, demonstrating strategic buyers’ willingness to pay premium multiples for established franchise platforms.

MTY Food Group Technical Analysis: Stock Chart Shows Breakout Pattern

From a technical perspective, Thursday’s 10% surge pushed MTY stock above key resistance at C$42, potentially setting up further gains if acquisition news materializes. Trading volume and price momentum suggest accumulation by institutional buyers anticipating a deal announcement.

However, if talks break down, MTY stock could quickly test support levels around C$40, with further downside to C$38 if selling accelerates. The gap between current prices (C$44) and reported bids (C$52-53) creates significant volatility potential in either direction.

What Happens Next: MTY Food Group Acquisition Timeline

This Weekend (January 25-26): Final negotiations between MTY Food Group and competing bidders, with parties working to finalize terms on price, deal structure, and transition arrangements.

Monday, January 27 (Potential): Announcement before market open disclosing winning bidder, purchase price, and expected closing timeline.

Q1-Q2 2026: Regulatory approval process including Competition Bureau review and potential Investment Canada Act approval.

Mid-2026: Expected transaction closing, with MTY shareholders receiving cash and/or stock consideration depending on deal structure.

MTY Food Group Quick Facts – Acquisition Target Profile

MTY Food Group Competitors and Industry Peers

• Recipe Unlimited Corporation (TSX: RECP) – C$1.3B market cap
• Restaurant Brands International (TSX: QSR) – $26B market cap (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes)
• Inspire Brands (private) – Arby’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic
• Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) – $41B market cap (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut)